The Minnesota Vikings have played 14 games this season. Thirteen of them have been decided by one score. So if you’re expecting a relaxing three-game finale to the 2023 regular season, look elsewhere.
Hovering over three divisional games to close out the campaign is a fight for the NFC wild card. By no means are the Vikings a shoo-in. Most odds indicate Minnesota’s playoff probability lands somewhere close to a coin flip.
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What has to happen for the Vikings to make it? Who can give them a run for their money? Here is a snapshot of where Minnesota stands ahead of these final three games.
NFC North race
When the NFL released the 2023 schedule, NFC North teams and pundits were fixated on the season’s final three weeks. The Vikings figured to be vying for the division title with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. The Vikings would tangle with them both down the stretch.
Though the Vikings still have a chance at the NFC North title, their chances are minimal. Minnesota trails Detroit by three games with three games remaining. The New York Times’ playoff simulator gives the Vikings a 4 percent chance to win the division. Minnesota’s chances can climb to nearly 10 percent with a win this weekend.
To prevent the Lions from capturing their first division title since 1993, the Vikings must not only win out, but they also need the Lions to lose all three of their remaining games. Minnesota will have its say over two of those games (Week 16 in Minnesota and Week 18 in Detroit), but the Lions would also have to lose in Week 17 in Dallas against the Cowboys.
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Wild-card picture
Deep narrator voice: Eight teams enter, but only two will remain.
This is a horse race with all the ponies jockeying for position. One misstep, one wrong move, and the dominoes can fall an entirely different way. Eight teams are competing for the final two NFC wild-card spots: the Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears.
As Week 16’s slate approaches, here are each team’s odds of earning one of the final berths:
The Vikings essentially control their destiny. Win two of their final three games, and, per The New York Times’ simulator, their playoff odds skyrocket to 99 percent. Win only one of their final three games, and they’re going to need help.
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If the Vikings beat the Lions this weekend but lose their final two games, their odds will hinge on the results among the Rams, Buccaneers, Saints, Packers and Seahawks over the final three weeks. Minnesota currently owns the tiebreaker over the Rams and Saints based on conference win percentage. However, the Bucs own the tiebreaker over the Vikings due to their head-to-head victory in Week 1.
Excluding the Bears and Falcons, the Seahawks and Packers have the easiest schedules in the final three weeks. It is possible, though, that the Rams, who play the Saints this weekend, could connect with a San Francisco 49ers team in Week 18 wanting to rest its starters.
WARNING: A Winter Whiteout is headed to Minnesota
12.24 🥶🥶 pic.twitter.com/FPGk4b5vR3
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 19, 2023
Potential playoff opponents
Given the Lions’ chances of securing the NFC North — about 96 percent according to the Times — the Vikings would be entering the playoffs as a No. 6 or 7 seed. Last year, Minnesota hosted an NFC wild-card game. This year, they’d travel. Three teams are competing for the No. 2 and 3 seeds.
Detroit Lions (10-4): Imagine this! The Vikings host the Lions this weekend. Then they play in Detroit in Week 18. If the seeding remains the way it is now (Lions at No. 3, Vikings at No. 6), Minnesota would return to Detroit for a decisive winner-take-all on wild-card weekend.
The storylines would be juicy. Detroit, trying to win its first playoff game since 1991. Head-coaching candidates Ben Johnson and Brian Flores duking it out. Lions quarterback Jared Goff against his former coaches, Kevin O’Connell and Wes Phillips. Would Goff’s recent exposure to Flores’ defense allow him to make quick work of the scheme? Would the Lions secondary find a way to limit the Vikings’ skill players?
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Dallas Cowboys (10-4): Dallas does not have an easy closing stretch of the season. The Cowboys face the Dolphins this weekend in Miami, then host the Lions the following week. Dallas currently occupies the No. 2 seed even though it has the same record as Philadelphia. The Eagles are reeling following three straight losses, but they finish the season with two games against the New York Giants and one against the Arizona Cardinals, which keeps them in the conversation for the NFC East title.
The Cowboys are an intriguing potential opponent. Would quarterback Dak Prescott be able to decipher Flores’ defense? Would the Cowboys pass rush give Minnesota as many problems as it did in last season’s debacle at U.S. Bank Stadium?
Philadelphia Eagles (10-4): I can hear you already: Not again. Philadelphia has not been kind to Minnesota. Not in the past two years, and not in the playoffs. One reference to the 38-7 NFC Championship Game loss should suffice.
However, remove the fumbles from this year’s Week 2 loss in Philadelphia and the Vikings are in prime position to win that game. That was with starting quarterback Kirk Cousins, of course, whose absence looms over any Minnesota playoff game.
(Photo: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
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